Tackling civil unrest: redistribution can be a better solution than tougher policing
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In trying to reduce serious political conflicts within countries, it may be more effective to be tougher on the causes of discontent than on the unrest itself. That is the implication of research by Dr Patricia Justino, presented at the Royal Economic Society’s Annual Conference.
Her work suggests that, in unstable socio-political environments, social redistributive policies may be an important means of conflict management. For example, analysis of rioting in India over the past 30 years show that public expenditure on social services has contributed significantly towards the reduction of conflict, whereas the accumulated use of police over time is associated with increases in rioting.
A large number of developing countries have experienced serious socio-political conflicts in the last decades, ranging from large-scale civil wars to recurrent rioting and civil unrest. Those conflicts have affected millions of people and have led to significant lost opportunities in terms of economic growth and human development.
The general tendency of governments in conflict-prone economies is to resort to the use of police and military forces to counteract civil and political upheavals. But this can be a counterproductive measure since it does not address the direct causes of conflict and may leave sufficient resentment in the population to trigger further conflicts.
This research investigates the possibility of using pro-poor redistributive policies, in the form of public expenditure on social services, as a way of preventing conflict and diffusing existing conflicts.
The study shows that such policies can be an important factor in the dispersion of conflict when the causes of conflict lie in the discontent of some population groups with persistent poverty, increasing inequalities and deteriorating living conditions. These conclusions are based on an analysis of the determinants of riots in India in the period 1973-2000.
Many economists and other social scientists have suggested that persistent poverty and inequality may affect society’s propensity for engaging in riots, insurrections and other forms of social upheavals, including civil wars, if they result in the accumulation of discontent to a sufficiently high level to break social cohesion.
This research takes these findings one step further and asks whether pro-poor redistributive policies may have a role to play in the reduction and prevention of conflicts in developing countries. Dr Justino compares and contrasts the impact of the use of police and the use of social policies on the level of riots in 14 major Indian states over the last three decades.
The results show that public expenditure on social services has contributed towards the reduction of rioting in India, whereas the use of police has had mixed results. In particular, the accumulated use of police over time seems to be associated with increases in rioting.
This suggests that, in unstable socio-political environments, social redistributive policies may be an important means of conflict management. These policies will also contribute to improving the living standards of the poor, as well as encouraging the establishment of more stable socio-economic environments.
Although these findings are country-specific, they have wider implications for countries that combine high income inequalities and high potential for conflict such as parts of Latin America as well as countries where previously successful social development policies have shown signs of breakdown such as Cuba and Sri Lanka.
Redistribution, Inequality and Political Conflict by Patricia Justino will be presented at the Royal Economic Society’s 2004 Annual Conference at the University of Wales Swansea on Wednesday 7 April.
Dr Justino is at the Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9SJ.
For Further information contact Romesh Vaitilingam on 0117-983-9770 or 07768-661095 (email: romesh@compuserve.com).
Related information
You can find other publications by these authors, related research and citations from IDEAS and you can search for more Internet resources on the topic of Poverty and Inequality on SOSIG.
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