Blog: Economics in Action

In the latest of our podcasts supporting the Royal Economic Society Conference 2008 Romesh Vaitilingam talks to Dan Anderberg about some socio-economic analysis of the effects of the MMR controversy.

Listen to the interview

Highly educated parents responded more strongly to the controversial study linking the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine to the development of autism in children. That is the central finding of new research by Professor Dan Anderberg and colleagues presented at the Royal Economic Society’s 2008 annual conference.

Whats more, the study finds, these parents were less likely to have their children vaccinated against other diseases after the controversy, not just MMR. Since there was never any suspicion of doubt about other vaccines, this may have put the health of their children at risk.

(more…)

In the latest of a series of interviews from the Royal Economic Society Conference 2007, Romesh Vaitilingam talks to Emma Tominey about the effect of smoking during pregnancy.

Listen to the interview

Mothers who smoke during pregnancy will have smaller babies. But much of the harm is due to unobservable traits of the mother. If mums stub it out by the time they are five months pregnant, the damage is as good as undone.

At the same time, the lasting harm to babies is greatest if the mothers have low education. So a much more holistic approach to improving child health in pregnancy is needed to help thousands of children break out of the poverty trap.

These are the conclusions of extensive new research by Emma Tominey, presented to the Royal Economic Society’s 2007 annual conference at the University of Warwick, 11-13 April. (more…)

Three short (i.e. 2 or 3 minute) videos from the BBC TV series “Trust Me, I’m an Economist” have found their way online, seemingly to promote the book by presenter Tim Harford. In part one, he gives free advice to someone who wants to be a gangsta rapper. In part two, he uses second-hand cars as examples of a problem called asymmetric information. In part three, he uses airport queues as an analogy for the stock market.

Listen to the interview

Providing family planning services for young people has little impact on pregnancy rates and may have contributed to the dramatic increase in rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among young people. That is the conclusion of research presented at the Royal Economic Society annual conference by Professor David Paton of the Nottingham University Business School.

The research casts further doubt on the wisdom of the Government’s Teenage Pregnancy Strategy, following on from the announcement in February 2002 that the latest figures show an increase in teenage pregnancy rates, following several years of decline.

Since the start of the Teenage Pregnancy Strategy in 1999, there has been a major expansion of family planning services in the community aimed specifically at young people. Although teenage pregnancy rates in England have decreased somewhat since 1999, diagnosis rates of sexually transmitted infections have rocketed by 24.3%.

Professor Paton’s research looks at every health authority in England to see whether those areas that have increased family planning services for young people the most have also experienced the biggest decrease in pregnancy rates.

In fact, there is almost no correlation at all, even when a range of other social and economic factors are taken into account. The research also demonstrates that controversial schemes to provide the morning after pill to teenagers free of charge at pharmacists have not reduced teenage conceptions. In contrast, areas with bigger increases in family planning services have experienced significantly bigger increases in sexually transmitted infections among teenagers.

Professor Paton comments:

‘One of the problems with research on sexually transmitted infections is that we only have data on diagnoses and not on actual infections. With some of these infections, most notably chlamydia, there are often no symptoms at all. It could be that the increase in diagnosis rates just reflects the fact more young people are aware about diseases like chlamydia and are getting themselves tested.’

‘In fact, the notable feature about my results is that I found a significantly positive correlation between increases in family planning services and increases both in rates of chlamydia and in rates of those sexually transmitted infections where the symptoms are more noticeable.’

One explanation for these results is that easier access to family planning for young people may have been partly responsible for the increase in risky sexual behaviour among young people. The increase in this risk-taking behaviour may then have outweighed any positive impact of family planning policies.

The research suggests that economic and social factors, such as improved levels of educational achievement, are the factors that are most likely to affect teenage pregnancy rates.

Professor Paton believes that policy-makers can learn important lessons from his research:

When you introduce policies that seem to be obvious, it is important to factor in the possibility that the policies may actually cause people to change how they behave.

In this case, it appears that some measures aimed at reducing teenage pregnancy rates induced changes in teenage behaviour that were large enough not only to negate the intended impact on conceptions, but to have an adverse impact on another important area of sexual health sexually transmitted infections.

Notes

Random Behaviour or Rational Choice? Family Planning, Teenage Pregnancy and STIs by David Paton will be presented at the Royal Economic Society’s 2004 Annual Conference at the University of Wales Swansea on Monday 5 April.

David Paton is Professor in Industrial Economics at Nottingham University Business School.

STI rates are diagnoses among all teenagers at GUM clinics in England per 10,000 young people aged 15-19.

The latest data for teenage pregnancy relate to 2002 and were released in Health Statistics Quarterly on 26 February 2002. The rate of conceptions to girls under 18 was 42.6 per 1,000 in 2002, compared to 42.3% in 2001.

For Further information contact Romesh Vaitilingam on 0117-983-9770 or 07768-661095 (email: romesh@compuserve.com).

Related information

You can find other publications by this author, related research and citations from IDEAS and you can search for more Internet resources on the topic of STIs on SOSIG.

Economics in Action is a collaboration between the Royal Economic Society, the Economics Network of the Higher Education Academy and SOSIG, the Social Science Information Gateway. It forms part of the Why Study Economics initiative.

Listen to the interview

Economists at Nottingham University Business School and Nottingham Trent University claim to have found a way to beat the bookies and make money out of spread betting.

In a paper presented at the Royal Economic Society’s Annual Conference, Dr David Paton and Dr Leighton Vaughan Williams show that punters can take advantage of different odds quoted by spread betting companies.

The two economists investigated returns to spread bets on one of the most popular markets, the number of bookings points in Premier League football matches. Dr Vaughan Williams explained:

‘Punters using the system pinpointed by our research would have won in more than 60% of matches examined over the last two seasons. The key to the system is identifying those cases where one bookmaker is offering prices out of line with their competitors.’

The possibility of betting arbitrages – buying high with one company and selling low with another to make a sure profit – has long been well known to punters. But such cases are increasingly difficult to find and spread bookmakers are known to restrict the amount of money that can be bet when an arbitrage position is open.

The two economists describe cases where companies offer prices that are different but not necessarily far enough apart for an arbitrage as Quasi-arbitrages or Quarbs. Dr Paton commented:

‘Quarbs are more common than true arbitrages, and spread bookmakers are much less likely to restrict the number of bets on them. Although betting on a Quarb does not guarantee you a profit, we found 140 cases during the last two Premier League seasons. Of these, 86 would have been winning bets and only 50 would have lost. A punter staking a modest £5 per point in each case would have won almost £5,000 over the two years.’

Despite the good news for punters, Dr Vaughan Williams adds a cautionary note:

‘Our research shows that, by betting sensibly, punters really can turn the odds in their favour. But they should remember that spread betting is notoriously volatile and it is possible to lose a lot of money in a short period of time.’

Notes

Quarbs and Efficiency in Spread Betting Markets: Can You Beat the Book? by David Paton and Leighton Vaughan Williams was presented at the Royal Economic Society’s 2002 Annual Conference at the University of Warwick.

Paton is Senior Lecturer in Industrial Economics, Nottingham University Business School, Jubilee Campus, Wollaton Road, Nottingham; Vaughan Williams is Head of Economics Research, Department of Economics and Politics, Nottingham Trent University, Burton Street.

For Further Information contact Romesh Vaitilingam on 07768-661095 (email: romesh@compuserve.com)

Related information

You can find other publications by these authors, related research and citations from IDEAS and you can search for more Internet resources on the topic of Gambling on SOSIG.

Economics in Action is a collaboration between the Royal Economic Society, the Economics Network of the Higher Education Academy and SOSIG, the Social Science Information Gateway. It forms part of the Why Study Economics initiative.