Security not aid or trade is the key to getting the world’s bottom billion out of poverty

The real challenge of development is the bottom billion the people living in 50 or so countries, mainly in Africa, that are falling behind and often falling apart. But increased aid and freer trade will make only a marginal difference to these people’s lives until they enjoy greater security and that means military interventions by the rich countries to end civil wars, prevent conflicts from restarting and provide peacekeeping forces in support of long-term economic solutions.

These were the central messages of Professor Paul Collier when he delivered the 2006 Royal Economic Society Annual Public Lecture ‘ War and Peace in Africa’ at the Wigmore Hall in London on Friday 1 December.

Five sixths of the world’s population are already prosperous, or at least on track to be so. But the billion at the bottom face far lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality and economic stagnation that means they are poorer now than 40 years ago. Collier described the four traps that define the countries of the bottom billion: civil war; natural resource wealth; being landlocked; and bad governance.

To break the conflict trap, there are two points of intervention: post-conflict; and deep prevention. Since around half of all civil wars are post-conflict relapses, and since these happen in only a few countries, getting post-conflict to work is a good place to start. It is particularly pertinent at the moment because there have been a lot of recent peace settlements.

So what can be done in post-conflict situations? There are essentially four solutions for relieving the poverty of the bottom billion more aid; freer trade; increased security; and improved governance. We can more or less forget about trade: Afghanistan isn’t going to export anything soon, except drugs. Aid has already improved a lot. Much needs to be done about laws and charters.

But security in post-conflict societies is key and will normally require an external military presence for a long time. Both the sending and recipient government should expect this presence to last for around a decade and commit to it. Much shorter than a decade and domestic politicians are liable to play a waiting game rather than building peace and firms are likely to be wary of investing. Much longer than a decade and citizens are likely to get restive about foreign troops in the country.

To be effective and external presence requires troops with a mandate to fight to preserve the peace, and contributing governments willing to accept casualties. In return for this external security guarantee, the post-conflict government should be required radically to downsize its own army. While the military should be run down, there is likely to be a need for an expanded police force to deal with a crime wave as the violent diversify from war to crime.

Professor Collier said:

Public opinion is vital for appropriate military intervention. We have had two extremes.

On the one hand, public opinion has been fed the hype surrounding the initial invasions of Somalia and Iraq the photographers on the beach in Somalia and shock and awe in Iraq. On the other hand, we have seen the cringing feebleness of the UN forces in Rwanda and the Dutch at Srebenica.

Public opinion has to come round to supporting interventions like Sierra Leone. If Iraq is allowed to become Somalia 2, ‘never intervene’ then await Rwanda 2.

For further information: contact Romesh Vaitilingam, RES Media Consultant, on 07768-661095 (romesh@compuserve.com)

Notes for editors: The 2006 Royal Economic Society (RES) Public Lecture, ‘War and Peace in Africa’ by Professor Paul Collier, was delivered at the Wigmore Hall in London at 3.30pm on Friday 1 December.

Paul Collier is Professor of Economics at Oxford University and Director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. For five years he has Director of the research department at the World Bank, brought in by Joe Stiglitz, and he was senior adviser to the Commission for Africa. His forthcoming book is The Bottom Billion: Why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it (Oxford University Press, Spring 2007).

Related information: Read more items from Paul Collier via EconPapers or look for more Internet sites about the issue of Development Economics at Intute: Social Sciences.

2 Responses to “Security not aid or trade is the key to getting the world’s bottom billion out of poverty”

  1. Setsoaki Matubatuba (14363471) Says:

    Providing security to the poverty stricken nations sounds like a good idea but will it be successful? I mean the countries are sometimes deep within war and intervention might be deadly. The government in that specific country should surely be willing to fight poverty and stop the wars before internationals can intervene, but are they willing? The one aspect which has been forgotten in this article is the unpleasant existence of corruption especially in African countries. The government officials which are enjoying their expensive and high class lives at the expense of the poor have no incentive to try to combat poverty.

    This way of eliminating poverty has great potential but there has to be a willingness from the nation’s government force

  2. u11016362 Says:

    Africa’s most pressing problem is not having a vision of were we would want to be and how we plan on getting there. The continent has, however, failed to face its challenges and turn them into opportunities for the better of every African not just the rich few. Instead, we always call for the intervention of other people whose interest may be different from ours. With food insecurity, poverty, political instability and poor infrastructure, we need to change. We have the most valuable resources and fertile soil, which should be followed by great actions geared at achieving great expectations.

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